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johnbartley

05:02PM | 02/20/05
Member Since: 02/19/05
1 lifetime posts
Bvhvac
1,900 sq ft split level CBS ranch, circa 1964, with a flaky gas furnace, in the temperate Portland (OR) Metro Area. It failed with water collecting in a condensation tube, first monthly, then weekly, and now won't run at all without a repair estimated at $1,560. Opening the panel lets it run for a while... It's time to replace it.

Currently, have a Lennox Conservator III G16, Model: G1603/4-100-3, Input: 100,000 BTU/Hr, Air rise: 35-65 F, and ducting to match. Also have a Trane XE1000, July 98, heat pump which is A/C only per the Trane dealer service manager. Capacity: 30,000 BTU, Model: TTR 030 C10 0A3, SN: N304NBTAF, Max input amps: 20A @ 220v

It may be helpful to visit

tinyurl.com/64pq6

which is an EPA site with an estimator program, with my data already entered. However, I am uncertain of several of their assumptions.

The optimum solution, so far, seems to be a 90% furmace, as over ten years it looks less expensive than the 80% also proposed. Here is the data, transposed from an Excel spreadsheet:

Dealer estimate

Gross price

state rebate

net up front cost

finance cost

total furnace cost

est yearly fuel cost (based on projected fuel cost * old furnace efficiency

/ new furnace efficiency)

5 year cost

10 year cost

15 year cost

(All figures in current dollars)

I'd be happy to send the spreadsheet by e-mail if desired.

Projected gas cost is 1.03 * current fuel cost, based on EPA demand projections of a 3% increase. Very rough, not at all accurate, but best available in a short period of time.

Dealer estimate for REPAIR (by Lennox Dealer)

Gross price = $1,560

state rebate = $0

net up front cost = $1,560

finance cost = $0

total furnace cost = $1,560

est yearly fuel cost = $812

5 year cost = $7,181 (assumes re-repair every 5 yr., same cost)

10 year cost = $14,363

15 year cost = $21,544

Dealer estimate for REPLACE W/ 80% EFFICIENT FURNACE: Lennox Merit 80 (36C-110, 48C-110, 60C-110, 48C-135, or 60D-135)

Gross price = $ 2,600

state rebate = $0

net up front cost = $2,600

finance cost = $7 on balance we can't pay for immediately

total furnace cost = $2,607

est yearly fuel cost = $711

5 year cost = $6,161

10 year cost = $9,714

15 year cost = $13,268

Dealer estimate for REPLACE W/ 90% EFFICIENT FURNACE Lennox G51 Series, model unknown (24B-045, 36B-045, 36B-070, 48C-090, 60C-090, 48C-110, 60C-110, or 60D-135)

Gross price = $3,400

state rebate = $200

net up front cost = $3,200

finance cost = $49

total furnace cost = $3,249

est yearly fuel cost = $632

5 year cost = $6,408

10 year cost = $9,567

15 year cost = $12,725

Dealer estimate for REPLACE W/ 94% EFFICIENT FURNACE, Lennox G61MPV series (36B-070, 36C-070, 60C-090, 60C-110, or 60D-135)

Gross price = $4,700

state rebate = $550

net up front cost = $4,150

finance cost = $116

total furnace cost = $4,266

est yearly fuel cost = $605

5 year cost = $7,290

10 year cost = $10,314

15 year cost = $13,339

A very rough estimate of an air-air heat pump to replace both the existing A/C only heat pump and the gas furnace follows. It deducts our current estimated A/C energy cost from the total energy cost for the 5, 10 and 15 year projections, and uses that 20% hike in electrical cost I mentioned above.

It uses the EPA's website (op cit.) ballpark price for an air-air heat pump with HSFP 8.5 & SEER 13 of $4,800, and adds $500 for each step up in effiiciency. It also assumes the existing duct work, which serves us well for summer A/C needs, would be servicable for winter heating. None of these assumptions are sacred, and any improvements in accuracy you suggest would be eagerly listened to, as we have two more estimators from diferent HVAC companies coming tomorrow, and we'd like to make a decision soon after the last departs.

Ballpark estimate for REPLACE W/ HEAT PUMP, HSFP 8.5 SEER 13

Gross price = $ 4,800

state rebate = $500

net up front cost = $4,300

finance cost = $126 on balance we can't pay for immediately

total replacement cost = $4,426

est yearly energy cost = $811

5 year cost = $8,043 (adjusting for greater cooling efficiency)

10 year cost = $11,660

15 year cost = $15,227

Ballpark estimate for REPLACE W/ HEAT PUMP, HSFP 9 SEER 13.5

Gross price = $ 5,300

state rebate = $600

net up front cost = $4,700

finance cost = $154 on balance we can't pay for immediately

total replacement cost = $4,854

est yearly energy cost = $768

5 year cost = $8,256 (adjusting for greater cooling efficiency)

10 year cost = $11,658

15 year cost = $15,060

Ballpark estimate for REPLACE W/ HEAT PUMP, HSFP 9.5 SEER 14

Gross price = $ 5,800

state rebate = $700

net up front cost = $5,100

finance cost = $182 on balance we can't pay for immediately

total replacement cost = $5,282

est yearly energy cost = $730

5 year cost = $8,494 (adjusting for greater cooling efficiency)

10 year cost = $11,706

15 year cost = $14,918

BTW, I made several hours of attempts to find anyone in the Portland (OR) metro area who was competent to discuss ground source heat pumps. The one designer I found, who did the People's Food Co-Op system, said the underlying basalt where our home is (said homesite having been selected to avoid soil liquification when the Big One hits) makes vertical well drilling very chancy. That was confirmed by a local well driller, who did some well work about a quarter mile from here. The largest open space we have for a slinky layout is 30' x 60', which makes me think I don't have the room for a ground source heat sink.
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