Saturated 40^F air entering a heated home through the walls dries the insulated wall. Air that is 40^F, 100%RH when heated as it moves through the wall to 68^F is 34% RH. The 34%RH warm air absorbs moisture.
The same ventilation process loads the wall with moisture when the outdoor air is 75^F with rain and the house is cooled to 70^F.
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