News flash, "After a cold flash", "only happens in winter" are better clues than that photo will give.
C`mon,..show me a little more than that !!
A well cleaned and maintained gutter full of ice will allow ..Back Up of ice under dripedge flashing at the bottom (eves) of the roof, it will also allow ice or melting to get behind the gutter if it does not have caulking over the back of it. Both of these senerios` allow the water to get to the back of the fascia, from there to the soffit, from there down behind the siding. Because everything is frozen, gaps and vents or spaces in the soffit are bypassed by ice bridge. If no soffit, even easier.
What I see, is run-out of a leak or damming problem, I`ve seen enough stains on clabboards to know. However, this is a first assesment of intel provided, and not me being there.
I started with the most common cause from the gutters. There are others, especially if you have dormers or vallies, skylights ect. ect. A wider photo of the wall is needed so I can see the contributors !!